Paul Tappenden
BA (Nottingham Trent), MSc (91Ö±²¥), PhD (91Ö±²¥)
Population Health, School of Medicine and Population Health
Professor of Health Economic Modelling
+44 114 222 0855
Full contact details
Population Health, School of Medicine and Population Health
Regent Court (ScHARR)
30 Regent Street
91Ö±²¥
S1 4DA
- Profile
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I have over 17 years’ experience in designing, developing and critically appraising health economic models across a wide range of disease areas. Since joining ScHARR in 2000, I have been involved in the assessment of numerous health technologies for the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), including beta-interferon and glatiramer-acetate for multiple sclerosis, anti-TNFs for ulcerative colitis, inhaled therapies for cystic fibrosis and TKIs for medullary thyroid cancer. I have also undertaken modelling assessments for the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evaluation, Trials and Studies Coordinating Centre (NETSCC), the Advisory Group for National Specialised Services (AGNSS), the Department of Health and NHS Cancer Screening Programmes, including an options appraisal of colorectal cancer screening programmes. In 2011, I completed an NIHR-funded fellowship evaluating the role and value of health economic models of whole disease and treatment pathways (Whole Disease Modelling).
- Research interests
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My main research interests are:
- Health economic modelling
- Conceptual modelling
- Whole disease modelling
Current projects
- Technology assessments to inform the NICE Technology Appraisal Programme (various)
- Economic analysis of interventions to improve adherence to nebulised therapies in patients with cystic fibrosis (alongside the CF ACtiF trial)
- Modelling the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (part of the ALS-CARE study)
- Publications
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Show: Featured publications All publications
Featured publications
Journal articles
- . PharmacoEconomics, 34(10), 1023-1038.
- . Value in Health, 17(7), A585-A585.
- . Pharmacoeconomics, 32(10), 967-979.
- . PHARMACOECONOMICS, 32(2), 159-172.
- . Health Technol Assess, 17(58), v-192.
- . Health Technol Assess, 17(56), v-181.
- . Value in Health.
- . Value Health, 15(8), 1127-1136.
- . Health Technol Assess, 14(25), iii-107.
- . Bone Marrow Transplant, 45(6), 1014-1021.
- . Int J Technol Assess Health Care, 25(4), 470-478.
- . Health Technol Assess, 13(11), iii-246.
- . Value Health, 12(5), 657-665.
- . Eur J Cancer, 43(17), 2487-2494.
- . Gut, 56(5), 677-684.
All publications
Journal articles
- . European Journal of Neurology.
- . Value in Health, 26(12), S425-S425.
- . Value in Health, 26(12), S375-S375.
- . Value in Health, 26(12), S174-S175.
- . Journal of Thoracic Oncology, 18(11), S134-S134.
- . Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 164, 96-103.
- . International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 39(1).
- . Health Technology Assessment, 25(76), 1-228.
- . Frontiers in Neurology, 12.
- . PharmacoEconomics.
- . Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders, 45.
- . PLOS ONE, 15(7).
- . JAMA network open, 3(5).
- . PharmacoEconomics.
- . Bone Marrow Transplantation, 55(7), 1473-1475.
- . Medical Decision Making.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 37(11), 1303-1304.
- . Health Technology Assessment, 23(30).
- . Health Technology Assessment, 23(8), 1-144.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 37(1), 7-18.
- . PharmacoEconomics.
- . PharmacoEconomics.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 35(8), 805-815.
- . Pharmacoeconomics.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 35(7), 717-726.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 35(6).
- . Value in Health, 20(6), 785-791.
- . Health Technology Assessment, 21(25), 1-536.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 35(5), 537-547.
- . Clinical and Experimental Allergy, 47(3), 410-429.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 35(1), 97-109.
- . PharmacoEconomics - Open.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 34(10), 1023-1038.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 34(8), 741-750.
- . Journal of Cystic Fibrosis, 15, S119-S120.
- . Health Technology Assessment, 20(39), 1-326.
- . Health Technology Assessment, 20(26), 1-48.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 35(5), 537-547.
- . Pediatric Pulmonology, 51(3), 316-328.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 34(3), 245-257.
- . European Respiratory Society, 47(3), 751-768.
- . Health Econ, 24(6), 742-754.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 32(12), 1171-1183.
- . Value in Health, 17(7), A585-A585.
- . Current Opinion in Pulmonary Medicine, 20(6), 607-612.
- . Pharmacoeconomics, 32(10), 967-979.
- . International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 30(3), 312-324.
- . International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 30(3), 333-340.
- . PHARMACOECONOMICS, 32(2), 159-172.
- . International Journal of Systems Science, 45(1), 60-68.
- . Health Technol Assess, 17(58), v-192.
- . Health Technol Assess, 17(56), v-181.
- . Eur Respir Rev, 22(130), 476-486.
- . VALUE IN HEALTH, 16(7), A426-A426.
- . Value in Health, 16(5), 830-836.
- . Pharmacoeconomics, 31(4), 269-275.
- . Health Technol Assess, 17(14), 1-237.
- . BMC Health Serv Res, 13, 105.
- . BMJ Open, 3(11), e003573.
- . Value in Health.
- . Value Health, 15(8), 1127-1136.
- . Health Technol Assess, 16(20), 1-72.
- . Br J Cancer, 106(5), 805-816.
- Assessing the costs and benefits of a pharmacogenetic test to reduce the incidence of adverse events. PHARMACOEPIDEMIOLOGY AND DRUG SAFETY, 21(1), 118-118.
- . Eur J Health Econ, 13(5), 589-603.
- . European Journal of Health Economics, 13(4), 511-524.
- . VALUE IN HEALTH, 14(7), A251-A252.
- . VALUE IN HEALTH, 14(7), A252-A252.
- . Clinical Therapeutics, 33(9), 1289-1305.
- . Medical Decision Making, 31(4), 625-641.
- . J Infect, 62(1), 14-25.
- . Colorectal Dis, 13(10), 1085-1099.
- . Int J Technol Assess Health Care, 26(4), 362-369.
- . Health Technol Assess, 14(32), 1-206.
- . JOURNAL OF CLINICAL ONCOLOGY, 28(15).
- . CLIN THER, 32(5), 789-803.
- . Health Technol Assess, 14(25), iii-107.
- . J Health Econ, 29(3), 468-477.
- . Aliment Pharmacol Ther, 31(7), 708-718.
- . International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 26(4), 362-369.
- . BMJ, 340, c1786.
- . Value Health, 13(2), 215-221.
- . Bone Marrow Transplant, 45(6), 1014-1021.
- COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF A POPULATION-BASED COLORECTAL CANCER SCREENING PROGRAMME IN IRELAND. VALUE HEALTH, 12(7), A280-A280.
- . J OPER RES SOC, 60(10), 1305-1314.
- . Int J Technol Assess Health Care, 25(4), 470-478.
- . Value in Health, 12(7), A395-A395.
- . Health Technol Assess, 13 Suppl 2, 9-13.
- COST-EFFECTIVENESS (CE) ANALYSIS OF ERBB2-TARGETED THERAPIES IN WOMEN WITH TRASTUZUMAB (TZ)-REFRACTORY ERBB2+METASTATIC BREAST CANCER (MBC) AND LIMITED EXPOSURE TO PRIOR CHEMOTHERAPY (CT). VALUE HEALTH, 12(3), A49-A49.
- . Health Technol Assess, 13(11), iii-246.
- . Value Health, 12(5), 657-665.
- . Tumori, 95(5), 610-622.
- . BMC Neurol, 9, 1.
- . Health Policy, 87(3), 389-400.
- Cost-effectiveness (CE) of lapatinib plus capecitabine (L+C) in women with HER2+ metastatic breast cancer (MBC) who received prior therapy with trastuzumab (TZ) based on updated survival data from EGF100151.. J Clin Oncol, 26(15_suppl), 6559.
- . JOURNAL OF CLINICAL ONCOLOGY, 26(15).
- Validity of proportional hazards (PH) Weibull models for analyzing progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with trastuzumab (TZ)-refractory ERBB2+(HER2+) metastatic breast cancer (MBC) receiving lapatinib plus capecitabine (L+C) versus capecitabine only (C-only). VALUE HEALTH, 11(3), A57-A57.
- . Health Technol Assess, 12(15), iii-162.
- . J Health Serv Res Policy, 13(2), 85-91.
- . Int J Technol Assess Health Care, 24(3), 350-357.
- . J Med Screen, 15(4), 163-174.
- A review and critique of modelling in prioritising and designing screening programmes.. Health technology assessment (Winchester, England), 11(52).
- A review and critique of modelling in prioritising and designing screening programmes. HEALTH TECHNOL ASSES, 11(52), 1-+.
- . Eur J Cancer, 43(17), 2487-2494.
- . Gut, 56(5), 677-684.
- . SAFETY SCI, 45(4), 523-539.
- Systematic review and economic evaluation of bevacizumab and cetuximab for the treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer.. Health technology assessment (Winchester, England), 11(12).
- Systematic review and economic evaluation of bevacizumab and cetuximab for the treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer.. Health technology assessment (Winchester, England), 11(12).
- . Health Technol Assess, 11(12), 1-iv.
- A review and critique of modelling in prioritising and designing screening programmes.. Health technology assessment (Winchester, England), 11(52).
- . Pharmacoeconomics, 25(8), 685-693.
- . Br J Cancer, 95(9), 1195-1201.
- The clinical and cost-effectiveness of oxaliplatin and capecitabine for the adjuvant treatment of colon cancer: systematic review and economic evaluation.. Health technology assessment (Winchester, England), 10(41).
- . Health Technol Assess, 10(41), iii-185.
- . Eur J Cancer, 42(17), 2867-2875.
- . BJOG, 111(9), 903-907.
- . BJOG, 111(9), 892-902.
- . Health Technol Assess, 8(27), iii-78.
- . BMJ, 326(7388), 522.
- The role of modelling in prioritising and planning clinical trials.. Health technology assessment (Winchester, England), 7(23).
- . Health Technol Assess, 7(4), iii-62.
- . Health Technology Assessment, 6(10).
- . Clin Ther, 23(11), 1792-1823.
- . Health Technology Assessment, 5(19).
- . PharmacoEconomics.
- . PharmacoEconomics.
- . PLOS ONE, 18(9), e0291366-e0291366.
- . The British Journal of Psychiatry, 1-6.
- . Health Technology Assessment, 13(Suppl 2), 9-13.
- . Thorax.
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- . Health Technology Assessment, 19(60), 1-110.
- . Health Technology Assessment, 19(82), 1-330.
- A systematic review of meta-analyses assessing the validity of tumour response endpoints as surrogates for progression-free or overall survival in cancer. British Journal of Cancer.
- . Programme Grants for Applied Research, 9(11), 1-146.
Chapters
Conference proceedings papers
- Model-based Evaluations of the Cost-effectiveness of Interventions for Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review. JOURNAL OF THORACIC ONCOLOGY, Vol. 18(11) (pp S134-S134)
- IDENTIFICATION OF HEALTH STATE UTILITY VALUES FOR HEALTH ECONOMIC MODELS: EMPIRICAL TESTING OF ALTERNATIVE SEARCH METHODS. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 26(12) (pp S174-S175)
- BAYESIAN META-ANALYSIS OF DATA FROM TRIALS OF MIXED PATIENT POPULATIONS TO INFORM HEALTH ECONOMIC MODELS FOR PATIENTS HARBORING A PREDICTIVE BIOMARKER. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 26(12) (pp S425-S425)
- A SCOPING REVIEW OF HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AGENCY (HTA) AND HEALTH ECONOMIC (HE) MODELLING GUIDELINES FOR IDENTIFICATION OF HEALTH ECONOMIC MODEL INPUTS. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 26(12) (pp S375-S375)
- A METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF NON-ADHERENCE ON THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF CHRONIC MEDICATIONS. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 25(7) (pp S520-S520)
- A CASE STUDY ASSESSING THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF MAINTENANCE IMMUNOSUPPRESSIVE THERAPY FOR KIDNEY TRANSPLANTATION IN ADULTS: ACCOUNTING FOR NON-ADHERENCE USING DATA FROM A RANDOMISED TRIAL AND THE REAL WORLD WITHIN A DECISION-ANALYTIC MODEL. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 25(7) (pp S529-S529)
- ESTIMATION OF TRANSITION PROBABILITIES FOR STATE-TRANSITION MODELS: A REVIEW OF NICE APPRAISALS. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 23 (pp S615-S616)
- Adjusting the causal effects of treatments in the presence of patient non-adherence: a systematic review of methodological papers. European Society for Patient Adherence, Compliance and Persistence, Dublin, 29 November 2018 - 1 December 2018.
- Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (aHSCT) versus disease-modifying therapy in multiple sclerosis using a matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC). BONE MARROW TRANSPLANTATION, Vol. 52 (pp S41-S41)
- . Value in Health, Vol. 19(7) (pp A490-A490)
- . Value in Health, Vol. 19(7) (pp A468-A469)
- . Value in Health, Vol. 19(7) (pp A366-A366)
- . Value in Health, Vol. 18(7) (pp A345-A345)
- . Value in Health, Vol. 16(7) (pp A372-A372)
- . VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 16(7) (pp A327-A327)
- . VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 16(7) (pp A367-A367)
- . VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 15(7) (pp A455-A455)
- . VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 14(7) (pp A469-A470)
- . VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 14(7) (pp A243-A243)
- Cost-effectiveness (CE) of lapatinib plus capecitabine (L plus C) in women with ErbB2+(HER2+) metastatic breast cancer (MBC) who have received prior therapy with trastuzumab (TZ) from the United Kingdom (UK) National Health Service (NHS) perspective. EJC SUPPLEMENTS, Vol. 5(4) (pp 225-225)
Scholarly editions
- A Pilot Study of Value of Information Analysis to Support Research Recommendations for the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence.
- Does the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence take account of factors such as uncertainty and equity as well as incremental cost-effectiveness in commissioning health care services? A binary choice experiment.
Posters
- Issues in the systematic review of drugs for rare diseases: A case study of Eculizumab for AHUS (2012).
- Exhaled nitric oxide for the diagnosis of asthma in children and adults: a systematic review.
- Reviewing the evidence used in cost effectiveness models in health technology assessment: a qualitative investigation of current concerns.
- Using Whole Disease Modelling to inform economic recommendations for the detection, diagnosis, treatment and followup of colorectal cancer.
Preprints
- Teaching activities
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- I am module lead for HAR691 (Using evidence in the design and development of models)
- I am an active PhD supervisor (3 current PhD students)
- Professional activities and memberships
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I am the Director of Modelling for the ScHARR Technology Assessment Group and a member of the NICE Decision Support Unit (DSU). I am a member of NICE Technology Appraisal Committee C.