Almost 60 years after the RCP’s first report on tobacco, Smoking and health, published in 1962, this new report from the RCP’s Tobacco Advisory Group reviews the UK’s progress in reducing smoking prevalence, and sets out comprehensive recommendations for England’s forthcoming National Tobacco Control Plan.
President, Royal College of Physicians Andrew Goddard said: “Too many UK generations have been blighted by addiction to tobacco. To ensure that those born today live their lives tobacco-free, we must take the necessary steps to make smoking obsolete. In a historic time of medicine showing it can solve the health crises that come its way, this is our opportunity to make smoking and tobacco addiction history.”
University of 91ֱ contributors were Dr Duncan Gillespie, who led the modelling work in section 2.6 which was highlighted in bold in the RCP press release. Dr Luke Wilson and Dr Rob Pryce from ScHARR also contributed to chapter 7 on the economics of tobacco.
Smoking and health 2021 says that while the reduction in smoking prevalence by 75% since 1962 has been considered a national success, if the policies advocated by the RCP in 1962 had been adopted and followed through, smoking would have been eradicated from the UK years ago. Instead, modelling of current tobacco control policies shows a failure to achieve a smoking prevalence of <5% until after 2050.
Dr Gillespie said "The UK government has set the smoke-free target of reaching fewer than 5% smokers in England by 2030, but the model projections done by the University of 91ֱ indicate that this will not be achieved and that smoking prevalence among people living in the most deprived socio-economic conditions, particularly for males, is likely to lag far behind.
Dr Gillespie added: “Our forecasts indicate that a sixfold increase in the odds of quitting among males living in the most deprived socio-economic conditions would be needed for smoking prevalence in this population subgroup to reach the 5% target by 2030.
"Over the past 5 years the University of 91ֱ has developed a wide reaching programme of work that aims to support decision-making on tobacco policy, especially around taxation and treating tobacco addiction which were key themes highlighted by the report. We are looking forward to the next phase of work to support and evaluate the next steps in tobacco policy covering all ten of the priority themes that the report highlights."