Spatial Analysis Network (SAN) Webinar
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Online event
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Speaker: George Galster
Video call link:
Housing Prices and Interregional Migration: Has Oslo Become a 鈥淪uperstar City?鈥
George Galster, Lena Magnusson Turner and Terje Wessel
Abstract
Skyrocketing housing prices in so-called 鈥渟uperstar cities鈥 atop the urban hierarchy have raised widespread concerns over who can afford to live there, despite little evidence about how relative housing prices affect individuals鈥 interregional in- and out-migration decisions. We investigate flows of individuals in different age and educational groups into and out of metropolitan Oslo, Norway since 1992 to ascertain how its significant post-2000 housing price inflation has altered migration in heterogeneous ways. We estimate for a 30-year panel education-stratified competing-risk hazard models controlling for interregional income differences and individual/family characteristics. We find that in only in the case of migration from small towns and rural areas to Oslo was the conventional wisdom supported: Oslo鈥檚 rising relative housing prices apparently proved a strong in-migration deterrent in inverse relationship to the individual鈥檚 educational attainment. Higher housing prices in Oslo relative to those in three Norwegian tier 2 cities was associated with more out-migration from Oslo to the latter destinations, but only for those with a university education. Unexpectedly, higher relative housing prices in Oslo were positively related to the probability of migrating from tier 2 cities to Oslo and negatively related to the probability of migrating out of Oslo to non-urban areas. This can be explained by viewing housing price inflation as a measure of both amenities and (for homeowners) property wealth and expected appreciation. Results suggest that the impacts of rising housing prices in 鈥渟uperstar cities鈥 on their in- and out-migration profiles are more nuanced and heterogeneous than conventionally seen.
Video call link:
Housing Prices and Interregional Migration: Has Oslo Become a 鈥淪uperstar City?鈥
George Galster, Lena Magnusson Turner and Terje Wessel
Abstract
Skyrocketing housing prices in so-called 鈥渟uperstar cities鈥 atop the urban hierarchy have raised widespread concerns over who can afford to live there, despite little evidence about how relative housing prices affect individuals鈥 interregional in- and out-migration decisions. We investigate flows of individuals in different age and educational groups into and out of metropolitan Oslo, Norway since 1992 to ascertain how its significant post-2000 housing price inflation has altered migration in heterogeneous ways. We estimate for a 30-year panel education-stratified competing-risk hazard models controlling for interregional income differences and individual/family characteristics. We find that in only in the case of migration from small towns and rural areas to Oslo was the conventional wisdom supported: Oslo鈥檚 rising relative housing prices apparently proved a strong in-migration deterrent in inverse relationship to the individual鈥檚 educational attainment. Higher housing prices in Oslo relative to those in three Norwegian tier 2 cities was associated with more out-migration from Oslo to the latter destinations, but only for those with a university education. Unexpectedly, higher relative housing prices in Oslo were positively related to the probability of migrating from tier 2 cities to Oslo and negatively related to the probability of migrating out of Oslo to non-urban areas. This can be explained by viewing housing price inflation as a measure of both amenities and (for homeowners) property wealth and expected appreciation. Results suggest that the impacts of rising housing prices in 鈥渟uperstar cities鈥 on their in- and out-migration profiles are more nuanced and heterogeneous than conventionally seen.